Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging
L.A. Gavrilov, N.S. Gavrilova
Center on Aging, NORC and The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
A common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear
of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation). This fear is only exacerbated
by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario have
been conducted so far. This study explores different demographic scenarios and population
projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful
biomedical war on aging. A general conclusion of this study is that population changes are
surprisingly slow in their response to a dramatic life extension. For example, we applied the
cohort-component method of population projections to 2005 Swedish population for several
scenarios of life extension and a fertility schedule observed in 2005. Even for very long
100-year projection horizon, with the most radical life extension scenario (assuming no aging
at all after age 60), the total population increases by 22% only (from 9.1 to 11.0 million).
Moreover, if some members of society reject to use new anti-aging technologies for some
religious or any other reasons (inconvenience, non-compliance, fear of side effects, costs,
etc.), then the total population size may even decrease over time. Thus, even in the case of
the most radical life extension scenario, population growth could be relatively slow and may
not necessarily lead to overpopulation. Therefore, the real concerns should be placed not on
the threat of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation), but rather on such
potential obstacles to a success of biomedical war on aging, as scientific, organizational,
and financial limitations.
Homo Sapiens Liberatus Workshop, Moscow State University, May 2010